Risk and Crisis Management in the Reformed European Agricultural Policy

Currently there is ample discussion among EU Institutions (European Commission, European Parliament, and Member States' governments) on the opportunity for setting up a comprehensive EU‐wide framework on risk and crises in agriculture. In the meantime, within the limits of the WTO rules on agriculture, national governments are allowed to intervene through direct compensation to farmers in case of exceptional events that cause damages to farming operations and through subsidies to crop insurance programs. Such schemes are quite expensive for domestic budgets and some Member States are trying to switch some of their cost to the Community's budget, although an expansion of financial resources devoted to agriculture in Europe is rather unlikely. Moving from the recently emanated proposal of the European Commission, this paper discusses the main issues related to public intervention for risk and crises management in agriculture. Actuellement, les institutions européennes (Commission européenne, Parlement européen et gouvernements des pays membres) discutent intensément de l'opportunité d'élaborer un cadre général pour l'ensemble de l'Union européenne sur les crises et les risques dans le secteur agricole. Entre‐temps, selon les règles de l'OMC sur l'agriculture, les gouvernements nationaux peuvent intervenir en accordant des compensations financières directes aux agriculteurs en cas de circonstances exceptionnelles causant des dommages aux exploitations agricoles ainsi que des subventions aux programmes d'assurance récolte. Ces interventions amputent considérablement les budgets nationaux, et certains pays membres tentent de transférer une partie de leurs coûts au budget de l'Union européenne, bien qu'il soit peu probable que les ressources financières consacrées à l'agriculture en Europe augmentent. A la lumière de la récente proposition de la Commission européenne, le présent article traite des principaux thèmes liés à l'intervention publique dans la gestion des risques et des crises dans le secteur agricole.     

The effect of seasonal adjustment on the properties of business cycle regimes

We study the impact of seasonal adjustment on the properties of business cycle expansion and recession regimes using analytical, simulation and empirical methods. Analytically, we show that the X‐11 adjustment filter both reduces the magnitude of change at turning points and reduces the depth of recessions, with specific effects depending on the length of the recession. A Monte Carlo analysis using Markov‐switching models confirms these properties, with particularly undesirable effects in delaying the recognition of the end of a recession. However, seasonal adjustment can help to clarify the true regime when this is well underway. These results continue to hold when a seasonally non‐stationary process with regime‐dependent mean is misspecified as one with deterministic seasonal effects. The empirical findings, based on four coincident US business cycle indicators, reinforce the analytical and simulation results by showing that seasonal adjustment leads to the identification of longer and shallower recessions than obtained using unadjusted data. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

品牌强度的影响因素分析及评估方法研究

本文通过分析世界著名品牌价值评估方法，并结合我国品牌管理及评估行业的现状和特点，对品牌价值评估中所涉及到的品牌强度进行了研究，分析了品牌强度的影响因素，并在此基础上应用主成分分析法对品牌强度进行了度量，旨在为实践领域提供可操作性的评估方法。     

Italian Socialists Warm to Vouchers

The political transfer of decision in education from producer to consumer has so far foiled in Britain. But the device to achieve it, by replacing 'free' schooling by purchasing power for parents, continues to excite discussion in the USA, Canada, Australia, Sweden — and most recently in Italy, where it has been championed by socialist politicians and academics. Professor Antonio Martino of the University of Rome analyses the reaction to the declaration by Claudio Martelli, deputy leader of the Italian Socialist Party.     

Explanatory factors of the inflation news impact on stock returns by sector: The Spanish case

We study the short run response of daily stock prices on the Spanish market to the announcements of inflation news at an industrial level, deepening the potential explanatory factors of this response (risk-free interest rate, risk premium and growth expectations). We observe a positive and significant response of the stock returns in case of “bad news” (total inflation rate higher than expected one) in recession, and also in case of negative inflation surprises (“good news”) in non-economic recession. This behaviour is consistent with the evolution of the company dividend growth expectations, since we observe that the relationship between this theoretical component of the stock price and the unexpected inflation, to a large extent, seems to explain the observed behaviour.     

Private-to-private Corruption

The cases of corruption reported by the media tend almost always to involve a private party (a citizen or a corporation) that pays, or promises to pay, money to a public party (a politician or a public official, for example) in order to obtain an advantage or avoid a disadvantage. Because of the harm it does to economic efficiency and growth, and because of its social, political and ethical consequences, private-to-public corruption has been widely studied. Private-to-private corruption, by contrast, has been relatively neglected and only recently has started to receive the attention it deserves. The purpose of this paper is to offer some thoughts on the nature and importance of private-to-private corruption; the legal treatment it receives in some of the world's leading countries; and the measures that companies can take to combat it, with special consideration of its ethical aspects.     

Cultural Tourism And Flamenco In The City Of Cordoba (Spain)

Flamenco is a tourist product that can attract many visitors from around the world, and the city of Cordoba (Spain) has an important role in the origins of flamenco. This work studies whether the satisfaction of cultural tourists who visit the city can be influenced by cultural offers related to flamenco. To achieve this objective, fieldwork was carried out based on 709 surveys conducted in the most important flamenco “tablaos” (stages) of the city. The techniques of factorial analysis and linear adjustment were used. The results show that flamenco can be a product that complements the satisfaction of cultural tourists.     

Planning considerations for cultural tourism: a case study of four European cities

Utilising the information gathered in four European cities, this paper discusses and tests a framework of reference for visitor-friendliness, a complex concept that encapsulates the main dimensions of the urban tourism product such as its quality, accessibility and image projection. This concept is particularly relevant to assess whether investments in culture and hospitality genuinely respond to the impulses coming from the market. The case studies highlight how specific soft elements of the urban tourism product are the ones that matter most in determining the attractiveness of a city for international visitors, and yet they are often overlooked by city planners. The paper also identifies a number of “best practice” in tourism management.     

Enhancing youth's attitudes towards microcredit in the bottom of the pyramid markets

The bottom of the pyramid (BOP) market comprises a huge customer size of approximately 4 billion globally; hence, segmentation is necessary within this market. The BOP market refers to an aggregate of customers who survive on relatively low‐income levels. In this respect, youth in war‐affected regions can be considered to be a segment of the BOP market. However, there is scant research on customers' attitudes and purchase behaviours in the BOP markets or segments therein. Hence, the purpose of this research is to investigate war‐affected youth's attitudes towards microcredit and the related drivers of these attitudes. The literature revealed four types of attitudes towards microcredit: positive affect, perceived benefits, perceived deterrents and default risk perceptions. Also, knowledge of microcredit and entrepreneurial desire were considered to be the drivers of these attitudes. A total of 795 valid completed surveys were collected from youth aged 18 and above who live in the Northern Province of Sri Lanka. The findings revealed that positive affect enhanced intentions to obtain microcredit, whereas perceived deterrents reduced them. Knowledge of microcredit enhanced attitudes towards microcredit. Also, entrepreneurial desire enhanced the association between positive affect and intentions to obtain microcredit and it decreased the negative association between perceived deterrents and intentions to obtain microcredit. The implications to theory and practice have been discussed which will go a long way in enhancing the attitudes towards microcredit among war‐affected youth and possibly those in the other segments of the BOP market.